Colorado State University (CSU) researchers forecast a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 13 named storms, including six hurricanes, for the upcoming period.
The forecast, released by the university's experts, suggests the influence of El Niño will likely suppress tropical activity compared to the highly active seasons seen over the last decade.
According to the CSU report, only one season since 2016 finished below average, specifically in 2025. Last year, the Atlantic saw 13 named storms, including the devastating Category 5 hurricane Melissa.
Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist and lead author of the CSU forecast, noted that the imminent return of El Niño provides meteorologists with increased confidence that tropical activity will be lower overall.
The impact of El Niño
El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is expected to intensify by mid-summer. This shift typically increases wind shear in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic basin.
Strong wind shear can weaken developing storms by disrupting their rotation or preventing formation entirely. However, researchers cautioned that El Niño does not guarantee a quiet season.
Last year, record-breaking ocean temperatures acted as fuel for storms, allowing them to intensify despite increased wind shear. The timing and intensity of El Niño's development will be the decisive factor for this year's activity.
While El Niño points toward a calmer season, current ocean temperatures present a contradictory signal. The western tropical Atlantic is currently experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures, a condition that often correlates with active seasons.
Conversely, parts of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic are running cooler than average. Scientists noted that rising sea surface temperatures, driven by global warming, continue to provide the energy necessary for more dangerous storm development.