Chile is undergoing an unprecedented population aging process that will transform its demographic structure in the coming decades. According to projections from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), life expectancy at birth in the country is set to rise from 81.1 years in 2024 to more than 88 years by 2070.
This increase in longevity, coupled with a sustained decline in fertility rates, is reshaping the population pyramid. The structure is shifting toward a "barrel" or even an inverted shape, similar to the demographic profiles seen in Japan or Germany.
The pace of change in Chile is significantly faster than in other developed nations. While it took France over 150 years to double its elderly population, Chile is expected to complete this transition in less than 30 years.
Challenges for the social security system
The speed of this transition leaves little time for national institutions to adapt. The aging index—which measures the number of people over 65 for every 100 people under 15—is expected to surpass one this year.
By 2045, the elderly population is estimated to be triple that of the child population. By 2070, the ratio is projected to reach 600 seniors for every 100 children under 15.
This new reality places direct pressure on the sustainability of the pension system. The current model, designed for a life expectancy of between 70 and 75 years, now faces retirements that can last more than two decades.
The healthcare system will also have to contend with a growing demand for geriatric care and chronic disease management. Increased longevity necessitates a restructuring of the healthcare network and the training of specialized medical personnel.
Regarding the gender gap, Chilean women live, on average, five to six years longer than men. In 2024, female life expectancy reached 84 years, compared to 79 years for men.
The structural deficit in care infrastructure represents another critical issue. The country needs proactive solutions to ensure that the elderly population has access to protection systems that guarantee a dignified old age.