A series of highly specific and well-timed bets on the Polymarket prediction platform yielded over $350,000 in profits for at least 50 newly created accounts just hours before President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday.
Blockchain data analyzed via the platform Dune reveals that these wallets, many created on the day of the announcement, placed substantial wagers on a "Yes" outcome for a ceasefire contract. This occurred despite President Trump’s aggressive rhetoric earlier that day, when he warned on social media that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran failed to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. In reality, the ceasefire was announced 90 minutes before that deadline, with the condition that maritime transit must resume in the waterway, which handles 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas, according to Al Jazeera.
One wallet, established around 10 a.m. ET, placed $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents and cashed out for a $200,000 profit. Another user who joined the platform on April 6 walked away with $125,500. A third wallet, created just 12 minutes before the president’s 6:30 p.m. ET Truth Social post, invested $31,908 and earned approximately $48,500.
Polymarket has since labeled the contract "disputed," citing ongoing missile attacks and continued shipping restrictions. Payouts are currently on hold pending a resolution.
The path to conflict and the 'Tehran trap'
The ceasefire follows a period of intense military escalation. According to a forthcoming book by New York Times reporters Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman, the decision to engage in "Operation Epic Fury" originated in a February 11 Situation Room meeting. While U.S. intelligence officials warned that the plan's goals of installing a secular government were "detached from reality," the administration moved forward.
As the ceasefire begins, the terms remain contentious. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that passage through the Strait of Hormuz over the next two weeks will only be possible “in coordination” with the Iranian military, according to Al Jazeera. This has caused significant anxiety among Gulf states, who fear the U.S. may grant Iran lasting leverage over the vital energy chokepoint. Negotiations are scheduled to begin this weekend in Islamabad.
Meanwhile, the ceasefire has strained U.S. relations with its allies. President Trump lashed out at NATO following a meeting with Secretary-General Mark Rutte, accusing member states of failing to support the war effort. According to Al Jazeera, several NATO members refused to open their airspace to U.S. military aircraft or provide naval support to reopen the Strait. Amid this diplomatic friction, a new POLITICO Pulse survey of six major EU countries found that 36 percent of respondents view the U.S. as a threat, compared to only 12 percent who see the country as a close ally. Trump also revived his threat to acquire Greenland from Denmark, calling it a "poorly run, piece of ice."
Beyond the diplomatic fallout, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused the White House of ignoring evidence that Russia is facilitating Iranian attacks on U.S. bases. Zelenskyy told the 'Rest is Politics' podcast that Russian military satellites have shared imagery of U.S. bases and energy infrastructure with Iran, alleging that the U.S. administration is failing to act because it "trusts" Vladimir Putin. Zelenskyy further criticized Trump’s negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, for spending "too much time" with Russian officials, according to The Guardian.
Some market analysts suggest the surge in "Yes" bets on Polymarket may have been driven by skepticism regarding the President’s threats, citing a pattern dubbed “Trump Always Chickens Out,” or TACO. Public blockchain data does not identify the owners of the wallets, and Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.
