The Biobío Region faces an imminent risk of natural disasters as a result of unstable hillsides left by the January 2026 wildfires combined with the onset of the El Niño phenomenon, according to reports from latercera.com.
The wildfires that struck Penco, Tomé, and Florida stripped the land of its cohesion, leaving the terrain vulnerable. The arrival of heavy rains associated with El Niño could further destabilize these areas.
There is currently an over 80% probability of the phenomenon developing, which typically leads to increased precipitation across central-southern Chile. According to a report by La Tercera, models from NOAA and the ECMWF suggest that the 2026 event could reach historic levels of intensity—a phenomenon some specialists are calling "Niño Godzilla."
Risk of mass movements
Cristian Vera, a geologist and researcher at Andrés Bello University in Concepción, warned that the lack of vegetation has left the soil highly vulnerable. "The risk of mass movements in areas affected by the fires is imminent," the expert noted.
Heavy rainfall saturates the ground and increases internal pressure, reducing the stability of slopes. This process is particularly dangerous in sectors such as Puncto, Tomé, San Pedro de la Paz, and Santa Juana, where steep inclines and urban development sit directly atop vulnerable slopes.
“What El Niño does is increase the likelihood of landslides occurring due to episodes of high-intensity rainfall,” Vera explained.
Agencies such as Senapred, the Ministry of Housing and Urbanism, and various universities are already implementing mitigation measures. Efforts are currently focused on identifying cracks, water seepage, or leaning trees that could signal impending ground failure.
However, the geologist emphasized the urgent need to implement runoff controls and construction restrictions. According to NOAA projections, the El Niño phenomenon could develop between June and August of 2026.
