Mexico’s Treasury certificates, known as Cetes, finished the latest auction with mixed results across the yield curve. Short-term rates fluctuated while long-term instruments saw notable declines, according to data from the most recent session.
The benchmark 28-day Cetes saw a slight dip, falling to 6.60% from the previous 6.64%. Conversely, the 91-day paper climbed to 6.90%, up from 6.82% in the prior auction.
Longer-term instruments trended downward as investors reassessed the economic outlook. The 175-day Cetes dropped to 7.03% from 7.15%, while the 679-day yield—the longest maturity offered—fell to 8.37% from 8.57%.
Inflation and the central bank outlook
These market adjustments occur against a backdrop of stubborn inflation. General inflation reached an annual rate of 4.6% during the first half of March, remaining well above the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) 3% target. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile price components, sits at 4.46%.
Banxico recently cut its benchmark interest rate to 6.75%, signaling a return to a monetary easing cycle. Officials have indicated they will continue to adjust rates based on incoming economic data.
Financial analysts currently expect the reference rate to close 2026 at 6.5%. This forecast suggests at least one additional rate cut is likely before the end of the year.
Investors typically choose between Cetes maturities ranging from 28 days to two years based on their specific time horizons. As the central bank recalibrates its policy, the spread between short and long-term yields continues to reflect shifting expectations for both growth and price stability in the Mexican economy.
