Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has revealed that the energy crisis stemming from the ongoing war has weighed down growth expectations for Chile. Speaking to international media, Gourinchas indicated that the country's current growth projection of 2.4% would have reached 2.6% had the war not occurred.
As reported by latercera.com, Gourinchas explained that estimates prior to the conflict were more optimistic. The French economist detailed that while there are domestic drivers for lower inflation and higher growth in Chile, the energy crisis is acting as a drag on the national economy.
The upward revision in the 2026 growth projection, which rose from 2.0% to 2.4%, is primarily due to high commodity prices. The economist highlighted that elevated copper prices toward the end of 2025 and throughout 2026 are the decisive factors behind this improvement.
Recommendations on energy subsidies
Regarding the measures governments are taking to mitigate rising fuel costs, Gourinchas expressed concern over direct subsidy policies. The IMF Chief Economist noted that "support must be very targeted. And it must be directed to the most vulnerable."
The expert warned that fiscal resources have become limited following the COVID-19 pandemic and the current energy crisis. Using subsidies to cap energy prices could increase public debt at a time when strengthening fiscal buffers is essential.
For Gourinchas, any state intervention attempting to keep prices artificially low will fail to address the underlying issue. "The conclusion is that there is not enough energy, whether it be oil or gas—there is simply not enough. Therefore, demand will have to decrease to align with supply," he stated.
Finally, the economist addressed the risk of a financial bubble in the Artificial Intelligence sector. Comparing the current situation to the dot-com bubble, he warned that massive overinvestment in companies that fail to become established could trigger a market correction and pose a systemic financial risk.
