Bitcoin is trading at a steep discount to global liquidity trends, according to new analysis released by CF Benchmarks on Thursday. Macro headwinds tied to rising energy prices and restrictive monetary policy complicate the outlook for risk assets and economic growth. Global M2 money supply has risen about 12% since mid-2025, while Bitcoin has fallen roughly 35% over the same period.
One model cited in its report implies a fair value of about $136,000 compared with Bitcoin’s current price near $70,000. The divergence marks one of the largest gaps on record between Bitcoin and a metric long viewed by analysts as a proxy for global liquidity. Historically, expansions in money supply have filtered into risk assets, with Bitcoin often responding more sharply than equities.
Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks, told Decrypt that divergences between M2 and Bitcoin have historically been temporary. Analysts say the missing link is U.S. monetary policy which has reduced its balance sheet to around $6.7 trillion from a peak near nine trillion in 2022. Elevated interest rates keep financial conditions tight even as liquidity grows elsewhere.
That backdrop has limited capital flows into markets, leaving Bitcoin more closely tied to real rates and broader risk sentiment than to headline money supply growth. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.16 billion in inflows over seven consecutive sessions through Tuesday. Wednesday saw its first daily outflow of around $129 million as prices declined about 4%.
Rising gasoline prices are adding pressure to household finances as economists estimate an 81-cent increase since late February. This could cost households roughly $740 over the year, potentially offsetting much of the boost from larger tax refunds. The White House projected that tax refunds for Americans would increase by an average of $1,000 come winter compared with previous cycles.
Markets have also focused on disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil supply, and the resulting inflationary risks. Elevated rates and increased oil prices have plagued markets in recent weeks, with oil topping $100 a barrel on Thursday before falling back to more modest levels near $92. The combination risks dampening discretionary spending and reducing the pool of capital available for investment.
The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday, maintaining a cautious stance as rising energy costs complicate its effort to balance persistent inflation with a cooling labor market. The federal funds rate was left unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, extending a pause that began in January. High rates and increased oil prices driven by geopolitical conflict have plagued markets in recent weeks.
Bitcoin rose over the weekend as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher, prompting investors to assess the potential spillover. The world’s largest crypto traded at about $72,950 on Sunday, up roughly 2.5% over the past 24 hours. Traders digested the latest geopolitical developments after a volatile weekend that saw Bitcoin briefly dip toward $70,500.
Most experts argue that global economic growth could accelerate again if financial conditions loosen despite current pressures. Investors must watch how energy costs and monetary policy interact to determine if liquidity finally filters into digital assets. The current disconnect between price and money supply suggests caution remains warranted for risk assets.
