Chilean government officials and opposition lawmakers are locked in a dispute over conflicting homicide statistics, even as experts warn that current data fails to capture the underlying drivers of violence.
Subsecretary of Crime Prevention Ana Victoria Quintana reported a 14.2% drop in homicides between January 1 and April 5. However, Deputy Jaime Araya challenged these figures, citing Carabineros’ STOP system data. According to Araya, the official numbers ignore a surge in violence during March, which saw 74 homicides compared to 52 during the same period in 2025.
Understanding the criminal mind
Organized crime expert Pablo Zeballos argues that focusing exclusively on statistical trends misses the point. He describes many homicides as "narratives of power" used by criminal structures to exert territorial control or intimidate rivals.
"We study the crime of homicide extensively, but we know very little about the homicides themselves," Zeballos said. He notes that while police and prosecutors have improved their technical ability to process crime scenes and digital evidence, the state lacks a robust criminological approach to understanding the psychological profiles of offenders.
Zeballos points to recent school-based violence as a critical area of concern. He suggests that these acts often stem from a perceived sense of grievance within specific micro-communities, which can be amplified by media coverage. This environment creates an "imitative effect" where vulnerable individuals may view a perpetrator as a figure of influence.
According to data from the Public Prosecutor’s Office, at least 26 homicides or attempted homicides recorded between March 11 and April 6 were linked to organized crime. Araya is now demanding a formal meeting with security commissions to address the resurgence of these groups.
"The situation is critical and we need to concrete measures now," Araya said. He wants the government to clarify which security initiatives will be prioritized to combat drug trafficking and terrorism.
Zeballos maintains that homicide rates should be viewed as a reflection of cultural and structural challenges rather than purely a police matter. He warns that there is no "magic recipe" for prevention, and that reducing violence requires looking beyond the numbers to address the motives that drive individuals to kill.
