A recent study conducted by the University of Chicago established a quantifiable link between residential eviction rates and the incidence of gun violence across Chicago census tracts. The research indicates that every one percent increase in a neighborhood's eviction rate correlated with an additional 2.66 shootings, according to the findings published in JAMA Network Open.
This analysis suggests that evictions destabilize the critical social fabric of disadvantaged areas by undermining 'collective efficacy'—the shared trust among residents to work toward common goals. Researchers posit that this breakdown in neighborliness leaves communities more vulnerable to violence, even when other socioeconomic stressors remain constant.
Lead author Thomas Statchen, a medical student at the UChicago Pritzker School of Medicine, noted that evictions sever community bonds for both those displaced and those remaining. The study utilized data from the Healthy Chicago Survey, which measures civic engagement and neighborhood conditions, to assess these social characteristics.
Conventional theories often attribute concentrated gun violence solely to structural issues like poverty, yet this research isolates housing instability as a distinct, measurable driver. Senior author Associate Professor Elizabeth Tung highlighted that some disadvantaged areas maintain resilience against violence despite economic hardship.
Between 2007 and 2016, millions of individuals faced eviction filings annually, with Black women disproportionately affected by these housing displacements. Beyond violence, higher eviction rates have been previously linked to poor voter turnout, reduced calls for city services, and increased maternal mortality rates.
Statchen and Tung emphasize that evictions are policy-driven outcomes, presenting city governments with actionable areas for intervention. Policy levers such as rent stabilization or enhanced public housing options could directly mitigate the flow of housing instability into community violence.
Professor Tung stated that while eliminating poverty remains complex, altering policies governing housing access demonstrates societal values regarding opportunity. Eviction represents a tangible and devastating point of intervention for local authorities seeking to enhance urban safety, the authors concluded.
