President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a high-risk military operation to seize Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. Such an action aims to prevent the regime from developing nuclear weapons during the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Military experts warn the mission would be one of the most complicated special operations in history. The White House said Trump was yet to make a final decision regarding the specific military path forward.
Key Details
Executing the plan would require the deployment of ground troops and could take several days or even weeks to complete. Removing the uranium stockpile involves navigating deep underground facilities that are heavily fortified against intrusion. Experts stated the scenario is fraught with danger for American forces involved in the extraction process. The operation would be one of the most complicated special operations in history, according to former officials.
At the start of the war, Iran possessed approximately 440kg of uranium enriched to 60%, according to senior US officials. The material can be fairly quickly enriched to the 90% threshold needed for weapons-grade uranium. Iran also has roughly 1,000kg of uranium enriched to 20%, and 8,500kg that are enriched to the 3.6% threshold. Rafael Grossi, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said last month that the majority is stored at Isfahan.
"There are many questions that we will only elucidate when we are able to go back," Grossi told reporters.
Most of the highly enriched uranium that can be easily turned into material for bombs or missiles is believed to be stored at Isfahan. The facility is one of three underground nuclear sites in Iran that were targeted in US-Israeli airstrikes last year. It remains unclear how much of the highly enriched uranium is stored at other locations. Some highly enriched uranium could also be stored at Fordo and Natanz, the other two enrichment facilities.
What This Means
The US could use elements of the 82nd Airborne Division to secure the areas surrounding Isfahan and Natanz. Special operations forces trained to handle nuclear material would then be sent in to retrieve the enriched uranium. The uranium itself is in gaseous form and is believed to be stored in large metal containers. US forces would likely need heavy machinery to dig through rubble in order to locate the enriched uranium.
Once the uranium is secured, the US would then face the question of removing it from the country or diluting it on site. Senior administration officials said at the start of the war that the US might consider diluting Iran's highly enriched uranium on site. But that would be a large, complex and time-consuming operation, said Jonathan Ruhe. Seizing and taking the uranium out of Iran is faster and would allow the US to dilute the material in the United States.
US ground troops would be isolated at Isfahan, which is located approximately 300 miles inland from Iran's third largest city. It makes medical evacuations difficult given the distances and makes US troops vulnerable to anti-aircraft fire. Alex Plitsas noted the US and Israel have been degrading Iranian defence capabilities to enable this type of operation. Nevertheless, he said it would still be a high risk operation for the deployed forces. While the operation could take multiple forms, experts said it would likely involve the seizure of an airfield or landing zone. The administration may also be using the threat of new military operations to pressure Iran to the negotiating table.
