The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expired at midnight GMT, removing the final binding limit on US and Russian nuclear stockpiles. This development marks a significant shift in international security architecture following the end of the Cold War era. UN Secretary General António Guterres described the event as a grave moment for global peace and security.
The agreement had capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 for each party since 2010. It established critical transparency measures including data transfers and on-site inspections to prevent misjudgement. Without these restrictions, the two nations possess the overwhelming majority of the global nuclear arsenal without verification.
Russia suspended the treaty three years ago amidst tensions over the Ukraine war but reportedly continued to abide by its terms. The expiration follows a worrying pattern where other long-standing arms control agreements have collapsed over time. Britain's former armed forces chief Admiral Sir Tony Radakin warned that the frameworks keeping the world safe now risk unravelling completely.
Russian Foreign Ministry officials stated they assume parties are no longer bound by obligations in the current circumstances. Dmitry Medvedev, who signed the original pact in 2010, said the expiration should alarm everyone despite his recent nuclear rhetoric. Moscow added it remains ready to take decisive military-technical measures to counter potential threats to national security.
US President Donald Trump expressed less concern than his predecessors regarding the treaty's demise. He told the New York Times that the United States will simply negotiate a better agreement if the current one expires. Washington insists that any successor framework must include China, which has been expanding its nuclear capabilities rapidly.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul echoed the sentiment that Beijing must demonstrate restraint in the field of arms control. Russia has historically argued that future treaties should include France and the UK as European nuclear powers. This disagreement complicates the path toward a new multilateral security regime in the region.
Darya Dolzikova from RUSI noted that drivers exist on both sides to expand strategic capabilities significantly. Both nations are currently modernizing their nuclear forces and developing long-range hypersonic missiles. These weapons can manoeuvre at speeds exceeding 4,000 mph and are difficult to intercept by current defence systems.
Pope Leo also urged both states to renew the treaty to avert a new arms race in the coming years. He stated the current world situation requires calls for doing everything possible to prevent further escalation. Such appeals highlight the growing salience of nuclear weapons in contemporary international relations.
A new deal remains possible but the expiry of New Start signals a more volatile and dangerous era ahead. The subject was on the agenda during a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska last year. However, no concrete actions were taken during that diplomatic engagement to restore the framework.
The risk of a nuclear weapon being used is now the highest in decades according to Guterres. Nations appear to want nuclear weapons as a deterrent rather than seeking disarmament globally. The absence of binding limits creates an environment where military-technical measures could escalate rapidly.
