Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun confronts escalating domestic and international pressures coinciding with critical diplomatic engagements scheduled for February and March, reported Al Jazeera. These events center on the phased disarmament of Hezbollah, a demand strongly promoted by the United States and Israel following the November 2024 ceasefire.
Central to the immediate agenda is the upcoming visit of Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) chief of staff Rodolphe Haykal to Washington, D.C., in February, where he will reportedly present the second phase of the disarmament plan. This plan involves drawing down Hezbollah’s influence between the Litani and Awali Rivers, a proposal Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has rejected unless Israel fully adheres to the truce terms.
Israel has reportedly violated the November ceasefire over eleven thousand times since its inception, maintaining troop presence in Lebanese territory and continuing aerial surveillance. This persistent military activity complicates Aoun’s mandate: to disarm a powerful non-state actor without triggering a renewed internal conflict, an outcome deeply feared in the nation, according to analysts.
Souhaib Jawhar, a nonresident fellow at the Beirut-based Badil institute, noted Aoun’s sensitive position, managing escalating external pressure against domestic resistance concerning armed groups operating under fire. The immediate goal appears to be managing a fragile transition phase focused on preventing systemic collapse rather than achieving a final security settlement.
Lebanon contends it has upheld its obligations under the ceasefire, pointing to Hezbollah’s cessation of cross-border fire since December 2024, while Israel continues incursions. A source close to the Presidency indicated that only the Americans possess the necessary leverage over Israel to enforce compliance with the cessation of hostilities.
An international support conference in Paris in March aims to bolster the LAF financially and materially, which Aoun seeks as a prerequisite for effective security deployment across the south. Securing robust international backing is seen as crucial to balancing US pressure for disarmament with the need to enforce reciprocal Israeli commitments, including withdrawal and reconstruction guarantees.
Political scientist Imad Salamey of the Lebanese American University observed that Lebanon is being asked to deliver security results without adequate reciprocal international guarantees. Analysts suggest that without concerted international mechanisms enforcing balance, the constraints facing any Lebanese leader attempting disarmament will persist, risking internal military friction.
