Amid heightened global speculation regarding US military deployments in the Middle East, Israeli leaders have adopted a notably reserved public posture concerning potential conflict with Iran. This silence, punctuated only by support for domestic Iranian protests, signals a deliberate strategy to allow the United States to take the lead in any confrontation, according to analysts cited by the BBC.
Former Israeli defense officials suggest this calculated quiet reflects a belief that Washington possesses superior capabilities and international legitimacy to initiate decisive action against Tehran. Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, noted that Prime Minister Netanyahu views the current proximity of US forces and former President Trump's willingness to act as an unmissable opportunity.
Private coordination remains robust, however, as evidenced by the recent meeting between Israel's military intelligence chief and US agencies in Washington, where discussions reportedly centered on potential targets within Iran. Analysts believe Netanyahu is privately advocating for strikes aimed at achieving regime change, potentially viewing earlier US strike plans as insufficient if they left the existing government intact.
For Israel, the primary strategic benefit of regime change in Tehran involves neutralizing the long-term threat of Iranian ballistic missiles and nuclear proliferation, alongside weakening proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon. Conversely, some Israeli lawmakers argue that limited strikes or a new diplomatic agreement risk leaving the core threat operational, necessitating a stronger Western response.
This strategic calculus is tempered by the memory of the 12-day conflict last year, which resulted in Iranian missile strikes hitting Israeli cities and causing civilian casualties, demonstrating the high cost of retaliation. Analysts suggest Iran has adapted its defense posture since that conflict, with a senior Iranian official warning this week of an "immediate and unprecedented" response to any new US action.
Experts suggest that Iran currently presents a moment of unique vulnerability due to diminished military readiness, weakened regional proxies, and internal civil unrest. Asaf Cohen, a former deputy director of Israeli signals intelligence, posited that this convergence of factors creates an opportunity that may not recur, suggesting a 'now or never' approach among some policymakers.
However, the path to regime change carries significant geopolitical risks, including regional instability and the uncertainty of succession within Iran, where the opposition remains fragmented. Furthermore, defense insiders caution that air strikes alone rarely achieve the goal of toppling a government, making the success of any US-backed effort highly conditional.
