CSIS Data Suggests Russian Military Losses Double Ukrainian Toll; Attrition Strategy Questioned
New estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicate Russian forces have sustained nearly 1.2 million casualties since February 2022, approximately twice the losses incurred by Ukraine. This staggering figure positions the conflict as the most costly for a major power since WWII, raising fundamental questions about Moscow's long-term military sustainability and operational effectiveness.
CSIS Data Suggests Russian Military Losses Double Ukrainian Toll; Attrition Strategy Questioned
WASHINGTON D.C. – A comprehensive assessment by the Washington-based think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), suggests that Russian military casualties in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine significantly outweigh those of Kyiv, potentially by a ratio of two-to-one or even two-and-a-half-to-one.The report estimates that Russian forces have suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties—defined as killed, wounded, or missing—since the conflict began in February 2022. This figure places the current attrition rate for the Russian Federation beyond that experienced by any major power in subsequent conflicts since the Second World War. Specifically, CSIS projects Russian battlefield fatalities reached between 275,000 and 325,000 by the end of 2025.For context, these estimated Russian fatalities alone reportedly surpass the Soviet losses in Afghanistan (1980s) by a factor of 17, and the combined losses from Russia’s First and Second Chechen Wars by a factor of five.Conversely, Ukrainian forces are estimated to have sustained between 500,000 and 600,000 total casualties over the same period, with fatalities estimated between 100,000 and 140,000. CSIS projects that the combined toll for both sides could approach two million casualties by the spring of 2026 if current rates persist.The high rate of Russian attrition is partially attributed by CSIS to a strategic approach aimed at grinding down both the Ukrainian military capacity and societal will to resist. However, the analysis also critiques the operational pace of Russian advances. Following the seizure of the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have reportedly advanced at a pace of only 15 to 70 meters per day during major offensives—a rate deemed exceptionally slow compared to nearly any major military campaign of the preceding century.The think tank cautioned that casualty assessment in active conflict remains inherently difficult, noting that parties involved often manipulate figures for political objectives. Nevertheless, the data presented suggests significant structural challenges for Moscow in maintaining its military commitment in Ukraine, potentially impacting its long-term geopolitical standing and economic stability.The findings underscore the immense human cost of the protracted conflict, even as military analysts debate the strategic efficacy of Russia’s high-attrition strategy against Ukraine’s sustained defense-in-depth posture.
