Dhaka faces its first parliamentary election on February 12 since the 2024 student-led uprising deposed former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who is now in exile in India. Hasina’s Awami League (AL) party has been banned from all political activities, leaving its vast network without formal representation on the ballot. This political suppression follows a period where the AL government oversaw widespread crackdowns, including the persecution of opposition parties like the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami.
Campaign materials featuring AL politicians have reportedly vanished from districts like Rajbari, signaling the swift erosion of the party’s visible presence on the ground. Lifelong AL voters, such as boatman Ripon Mridha, express apprehension about attending polling centers without the AL's recognized 'boat' symbol. Many fear repercussions if they are identified as non-voters in a politically charged environment, according to reports by Al Jazeera.
Opposition parties previously targeted by the AL regime, including the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, are now seeing a shift in political momentum, with their symbols gaining visibility among street vendors in Dhaka. In Gopalganj, the Hasina family's political stronghold, residents like rickshaw puller Solaiman Mia have stated they will boycott the election entirely, viewing a contest without the boat symbol as illegitimate.
Political analysts suggest the immediate future for the AL is precarious, with some predicting a gradual absorption of its local support base into dominant local factions following the election. Rezaul Karim Rony, a Dhaka-based analyst, stated that recovering the previous political standing will be extremely difficult for the fragmented party.
Despite the organizational collapse, some former members remain confident in the AL’s deep structural roots within Bangladeshi society. A former student wing leader suggested the party is employing strategic silence, believing its connection to cultural and social forces ensures its eventual return, possibly alongside Hasina.
Paradoxically, the survival and recent surge of the Jamaat-e-Islami party—which faced severe persecution under Hasina—offers a historical parallel for resilience, noted Professor Anu Muhammad. The AL retains an estimated 11% support base according to a pre-election survey by the International Republican Institute, suggesting its erasure is unlikely despite the current electoral exclusion.
Overseas, Hasina continues to project political relevance, recently addressing an event in New Delhi concerning the restoration of democracy in Bangladesh, which provoked a sharp diplomatic reaction from the current Dhaka administration. However, these international efforts contrast sharply with the party's complete lack of campaigning presence within the country.
