Economic Resilience vs. Skepticism
The Mexican economy has recently received positive signals that contrast with the skepticism expressed by analysts regarding the 12 official indicators presented by President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration. Various specialists have questioned the nature of these figures, noting that indicators such as the record-breaking Foreign Direct Investment in the first quarter—which reached $23.5 billion—consist of 94% reinvested earnings, with only 7% coming from new foreign capital flows.
Fitch Reaffirms Credit Rating
The most significant endorsement came from Fitch Ratings, which reaffirmed Mexico’s long-term foreign currency sovereign debt rating at BBB- with a stable outlook. This decision was crucial, as the market had feared a downgrade to a 'Negative Outlook,' which would have been a precursor to a potential loss of investment-grade status following previous adjustments by S&P and Moody’s. The agency justified its stance by highlighting the prudence of the macroeconomic framework, the strength of external accounts, and the overall resilience of the national economy.
Public Finance and Tax Performance
In the realm of public finance, April yielded mixed results, though there were notable highlights in tax collection. VAT revenue exceeded forecasts by 30 billion pesos, recording a 12.5% real annual growth for the month and a cumulative increase of 0.4% for the first four months of the year. In contrast, income tax (ISR) revenue saw a 6.2% decline in real annual terms.
IEPS Revenue Dynamics
Revenue from the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) also outperformed budget projections by 8 billion pesos, achieving a 12.7% real annual increase. This performance was driven by the fuel component, which grew by 14.8%, alongside significant hikes in processed tobacco (+20.5%) and flavored beverages (+46.7%)—results stemming from modifications approved in the 2026 Federal Revenue Law. However, the momentum of fuel-related IEPS moderated in April, recording a 10.1% real annual decline due to the application of higher fiscal stimuli intended to cap gasoline prices for the end consumer.
