Mexico has set an ambitious target to increase its natural gas production to 5.871 billion cubic feet per day by 2030. Currently, domestic output barely reaches 2.3 billion cubic feet daily, meaning a 155% increase is required in just four years.
This objective comes at a critical juncture for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). The state-owned company is struggling with a sustained decline in extraction capacity, heavy debt, and a severe lack of capital to invest in new projects.
An Operational Scale Challenge
Ramsés Pech, a partner at Grupo Caravia, warned of the technical magnitude required to achieve gas sovereignty. According to the analyst, Mexico would need to drill between 3,000 and 3,500 wells annually to meet domestic demand—a figure far removed from the 100 to 120 wells currently being worked.
The comparison with the U.S. market highlights the competitive gap. "In the United States, between 12,000 and 16,000 wells are drilled annually; to reach current production levels of over 100 billion cubic feet per day, it was necessary to drill more than 900,000 wells over time," Pech noted.
The United States maintains a dominant position in the global market thanks to the intensive use of fracking in its basins, particularly in Texas. This technique has allowed the U.S. to establish itself as the world’s cheapest gas producer, with prices hovering between $2 and $3 per million BTU.
This operational efficiency allows the United States not only to cover its own domestic demand but also to export surpluses to Asia and supply a large portion of the Mexican market. As Mexico attempts to jumpstart its production, its northern neighbor’s competitive advantage continues to solidify as the primary cost benchmark in the region.