Mexico's public debt is projected to reach 56.2% of GDP by 2027, according to analysts at Banamex, surpassing the official targets set by the Ministry of Finance.
The financial institution expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to hit 54.9% in 2026. This upward trend stems from lower tax revenues caused by slowing economic activity and reduced oil production.
Banamex analysts noted that political and economic difficulties in cutting spending will likely drive these numbers. Mandatory legal commitments and the costs associated with an election year make fiscal consolidation difficult.
Risks to credit rating
Losing consistency in the fiscal trajectory could damage the perception of public finance sustainability. The bank warned that such a shift could reduce the government's ability to respond to economic shocks.
"This could ultimately elevate risks for the sovereign credit rating evaluation," Banamex stated.
While HR Ratings previously projected a lower debt level of 53.7% for 2026, the agency noted that future stability depends on whether the Treasury prioritizes social transfers over debt containment. The agency warned that prioritizing social welfare adds pressure to the sovereign rating.
Banamex also criticized the lack of a clear strategy for increasing revenue. The bank noted that recent budget pre-criteria omit any deep discussion on new income sources beyond administrative modernization.
This omission reinforces the perception that fiscal adjustments rely too heavily on spending cuts rather than a clear revenue-side anchor for the medium term.
