The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upwardly revised its growth projections for Chile in 2026, setting them at 2.4% compared to the previous estimate of 2.0%. The organization also anticipates that the country's unemployment rate will drop below 8% during 2027.
These estimates, contained in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, are more optimistic than the figures from the Central Bank of Chile, which projects economic expansion between 1.5% and 2.5% for next year.
The Impact of the Middle East Conflict
Despite the favorable outlook for Chile, the IMF warned that the global economy is facing a turning point due to the war in the Middle East that began in late February 2026. The conflict has driven up energy prices and disrupted the global trend of slowing inflation.
The organization projects that global growth will fall to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The report notes that, without the war, global economic activity could have reached 3.4% in 2026.
Global inflation is also on an upward trajectory. The IMF estimates that inflation will rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026, driven primarily by rising fuel costs. Crude oil prices have surpassed $100 per barrel, peaking at $120 following military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran.
The report warns that emerging and energy-importing economies are the most vulnerable to this shock. The IMF estimates that growth in these nations will be adjusted to 3.9% in 2026, a downward revision of 0.3 percentage points.
To mitigate these risks, the organization recommended that governments strengthen fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability. The IMF suggests avoiding large spending packages that strain public debt and prioritizing spending efficiency to rebuild fiscal margins.
