The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upwardly revised its growth forecast for Mexico in 2026 to 1.6%, according to the World Economic Outlook report released this Tuesday.
The financial institution expects the Mexican economy to reach 2.2% growth in 2027. These figures stand in stark contrast to the sluggish 0.6% growth recorded in 2025, a year defined by tariff tensions and U.S. trade policy.
The organization warns that the global landscape is facing increased fragility due to the conflict in the Middle East. The war in the region has driven up energy prices and triggered inflationary and financial pressures across various nations.
Impact of the energy crisis
The IMF projects that energy prices will rise by approximately 19% in 2026. Meanwhile, oil prices could see an increase of more than 21%, which would drive up production costs and consumer spending.
This situation is expected to impact the global economy, which the organization estimates will slow to 3.1% in 2026. Economic fragmentation and commodity volatility are identified as the primary risks.
For Latin America and the Caribbean, the IMF estimates growth of 2.3% for 2026. The report notes that the region's smaller economies will be the most vulnerable to external shocks.
Brazil presents a different outlook as a net energy exporter. The Fund raised its forecast for the South American giant to 1.9% for 2026, bolstered by its position in the energy market, though it warned of slowing global demand and rising input costs.
The organization highlighted that Brazil possesses adequate international reserves and a flexible exchange rate to mitigate potential financial shocks.
