Chile is bracing for further increases in gasoline and diesel prices over the next three weeks, according to projections from the Clapes UC Center for Studies. The report anticipates a rise of approximately $63 per liter for diesel and $36.5 for gasoline.
Enap is expected to officially announce price changes this Wednesday afternoon. Current estimates reflect the pressure exerted by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has impacted Iranian infrastructure and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Drivers of the price hike
The research center attributes the upward trend to high global uncertainty and pressure on international crude oil prices. A maritime blockade announced by the United States against Iran caused Brent crude prices to rebound above $100 per barrel this Monday.
The exchange rate is also playing a decisive role. The dollar in Chile is currently hovering around $900, directly impacting fuel import costs.
“Because the period used to calculate fuel prices captures part of the March price hike, gasoline is projected to rise by $36.5 per liter,” the Clapes UC report detailed.
This phenomenon is due to a recent regulatory change implemented by the Executive branch on March 23. The new regulation mandates that the import parity calculation considers four weeks of international data instead of two.
The increase for diesel is expected to be more pronounced. The report notes that this is due to the sharper rise in international diesel prices compared to gasoline.
The Fuel Consumer Protection Mechanism (MEPCO) is currently acting as a buffer for these prices. According to analysts, without this mechanism in operation, gasoline price hikes could reach $73, while diesel could see increases exceeding $100.
The outlook could shift by May 7 if a downward trend in oil and the dollar is observed. However, the ongoing international conflict maintains uncertainty regarding energy costs.
